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DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/17 10:56
Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Corn Mixed; Wheat Lower
Corn futures are narrowly mixed at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are 4
to 13 cents higher; wheat futures are 15 to 23 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are narrowly mixed at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are 4
to 13 cents higher; wheat futures are 15 to 23 cents lower. The U.S. stock
market is weaker with the DOW down 235 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 30
points higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mostly higher
with crude up .50. Livestock trade is firmer with cattle leading. Precious
metals are weaker with gold $13.50 lower.
CORN:
Corn futures are narrowly mixed with firmer spread action with trade working
to consolidate in the middle of the range after the early week sell-off and
early gains fading. Short-term forecasts have the center of the Corn Belt drier
with milder temperatures short term. Ethanol margins will continue to be
limited by driving demand and seasonal slowdowns with unleaded futures finding
support in recent days. The weekly ethanol report showed production down by
39,000 barrels per day (bpd), with stocks rising by 190,000 barrels. Basis will
be watched to see how much further strength fades, especially with the board
rally and harvest starts in the South with mixed to lower yields and aflatoxin
concerns so far. On the September chart, support is the 20-day moving average
at $6.06 and the upper Bollinger Band is the next round up at $6.42.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 4 to 13 cents higher at midday with firmer spread trade
as drier weather returns short term for much of the belt, with trade working to
consolidate at nearby support levels with early gains fading a bit. Meal is
flat to $1.00 higher, and oil is 40 to 50 points lower. Biodiesel margins
remain positive but narrowing in recent days with overall crush margins good.
South America is on post-harvest footing for shipping with their advantage to
persist until September. The bulk of the U.S. is heading into the start of
pod-fill season with less-stressful weather this week, temperature-wise. Basis
has been more mixed as we head toward harvest. On the September soybean chart
support is the 20-day moving average at $14.45, which we are well above, while
November has faded through the 20-day moving average at $14.00, with the Upper
Bollinger Band at $15.65, which we have faded from.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 15 to 23 cents lower at midday with KC turning from
leading trade higher overnight to leading lower with better rains expected and
near-term demand questions remaining as Black Sea shipping moves forward.
Plains weather looks for better short-term moisture with deficits needing to be
eased ahead of planting, while spring wheat harvest should expand significantly
this week. The dollar is rebounding a bit with mixed inflation ideas. Egypt is
making some purchases without tenders while MATIF values fade further in low
volume. The KC September chart has support at the 20-day moving average at
$8.63, which we broke below this morning, with the Lower Bollinger band at
$8.23 the next round down.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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